Phillies vs. Reds prediction, odds, start time: 2025 MLB picks, best bets for August 11 by proven model Monday night sees an essential conflict in the world of American baseball when the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cincinnati Reds will go head to head. Apart from being of great significance to both teams as far as the season playoff is concerned, it is also going to be a thrilling match to the fans.
Recent form- who is playing better?
They have been playing very well as the Phillies. On Sunday, they logged their third successive win over the Texas Rangers by a scoreline of 4-2. Their record currently stands at 68-49 with this victory and they also are doing good in away matches with 31 victories and 28 defeats.
Conversely, the Reds too had been performing a good job. This was the second straight win and they were able to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates, 14-8. With a record of 62-57 they have been doing good and are performing on their home court, the Great American Ball Park, (33 wins and 26 losses).
- Match date, time and location
- Date: Monday, August 11, 2025
- Time: 6:10 PM (ET)
- Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
- Season head-to-head: Phillies have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
- Match odds and betting information (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Money Line:
- Philadelphia Phillies: +104
- Cincinnati Reds: -124 (meaning, wager $124 to win $100)
- Over/Under (Runs Total): 9.5 runs
- Run Line:
- Reds -1.5 (+159)
Why can the Cincinnati Reds win?
- The Reds’ biggest strength is their left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott.
- Record: 8-2
- ERA (Earned Run Average): 2.34
- Matches: 20 (all starts)
- Innings Pitched: 115.1
- Strikeouts: 99
His last game was not so spectacular when facing the Chicago Cubs (6-1 loss), however, throughout the season he has shown to be so impressive. He also faced Phillies on July 4 where though he had a no-decision, the team triumphed 9-6.
Gavin Lux is one of the most reliable players in the team in batting.
- Average (AVG): .274
- RBI: 42
- Doubles: 20
- He has shown his form with three consecutive hits in recent matches.
Why can the Philadelphia Phillies win?
The pitching responsibility for the Phillies will be on right-hander Taijuan Walker.
- Record: 4-5
- ERA: 3.53
- Matches: 24 (13 starts)
- Innings: 79
- Strikeouts: 60
He recently gave up just 4 hits and no runs in 6 innings in a 5-0 win against the Baltimore Orioles.
Star batsman Bryce Harper’s bat can thunder in batting.
- AVG: .260
- Home runs: 17
- Doubles: 26
- RBI: 49
Harper has been scoring runs consistently in recent matches and his aggressive batting can give the Phillies an edge.
Predictions and betting trends
SportsLine’s computer model, which has had great success on MLB money-line picks so far this season, is leaning towards Under 9.5 runs in this match. The model believes this match will be a close one, and there is good value in favor of one team on the moneyline.
Possible Result
If we look at recent performance and pitching records, the Reds will have home field advantage, but the Phillies batting lineup and Walker’s recent form are also not something to be taken lightly.
Possible Scoreline: Phillies 5 – Reds 4
But from a betting perspective, the Reds may be a slightly safer bet on the moneyline.
Streaming and Live Viewing Options
- Fubo TV – Watch with a free trial
- MLB.TV – Via Subscription
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Conclusion
SportsLine’s reliable model ran 10,000 simulations to accurately predict the match between the Phillies and the Reds. Based on these simulations, the model gives the Reds a slight edge (over 34% probability), while the Phillies have a slightly lower probability of winning (around 46%)
