Putin’s declaration: No necessity for nuclear weapons in Ukraine conflict, but the door is open.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has, in a recent television interview, stated that currently there is no necessity to deploy nuclear weapons during the war in Ukraine. He added that Russia possesses so much power and resources that it can win the conflict with conventional weapons alone. Yet, Putin also mentioned that Russia’s nuclear policy is also adjustable, and one can make a shift according to circumstances.
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Time and significance of the statement
The statement by Putin has been made at a time when the Russia-Ukraine war has reached three years, and still, there is no definite end to this war. Thousands of individuals have been killed and millions have been displaced till now in this war. The US and the NATO nations have openly helped Ukraine by giving it weapons and training its military, while Western nations have levied severe economic sanctions against Russia. Yet, says Putin, all this notwithstanding, the Russian military is quite capable, and they never required the use of the nuclear option.
What does Russia’s nuclear policy say?
As per Russia’s nuclear policy revealed in 2020, nuclear weapons can only be used if:
- Russia is struck by another nation with a nuclear weapon, or
- A conventional attack threatens Russia’s sovereignty and survival.
Putin explained that such a situation has not arisen till now where Russia needs to resort to the nuclear option. But he also emphasized that this policy is a “living document” (i.e., varying with time and circumstance), and Russia is observing developments worldwide.
Military operations and nuclear drills
While Putin is speaking of the avoidance of using nuclear weapons, meanwhile, Russia has carried out military drills (exercises) pertaining to nuclear weapons a couple of times during recent months. These included, among others, the deployment of Iskander missile systems, nuclear-capable aircraft, and sea-launched cruise missiles in collaboration with allies such as Belarus. Russia maintains that these military exercises are a reaction to NATO and Western actions — like Western nations providing long-range weapons to Ukraine or contemplating sending NATO forces to Ukraine.
Experts are of the opinion that by holding such exercises, Russia intends to convey a message to Western nations that if necessary, it can keep the nuclear option on the table — to deter Western intervention.
International reaction and concern
Western nations and the world at large have been alarmed by Russia’s nuclear threats. The Ukrainian leaders have condemned Russia for issuing recurrent threats of nuclear weapons to threaten the world. The US and European nations have vowed to continue their support for Ukraine but also attempt to steer clear of confronting Russia directly.
The United States is extending economic and military aid to Ukraine and also engaging in diplomatic efforts to somehow prevent the war from escalating and to achieve a negotiated settlement.
Conclusion: Putin’s message and future prospects
This recent declaration from Putin is providing many cues. On the one hand, he is conveying the message that Russia now stands in a position to win the war and doesn’t require nuclear weapons. On the other hand, he is also clearly indicating that if Russia senses a threat to its survival or strategic interests, then it can think seriously about the nuclear option.
Currently, the war situation continues to be shaky and complicated. The world keeps its eyes glued to whether or not any such move is being made, which might further complicate the situation. The global community appears to be working towards peace and solutions, but the ground situation of conflict and diplomatic tug-of-war continues.
Now, there is a requirement for all sides to show restraint and take practical measures to avert war so that the necessity for nuclear weapons does not emerge. Russia might not have shown explicit signals, but its position is indicative in that if the global situation deteriorates, then the possibility of a shift in nuclear policy is conceivable. This can also be a stern warning for the entire world.
