The Moon has always been the most stable and reliable object in the night sky. It plays a key role in Earth’s motion, ocean currents, and many cultural and scientific beliefs. But a recent NASA study suggests that it could now be a potential target for a space collision. This warning is not a rumor but is based on scientific observations by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).
2. JWST and New Discoveries:
In recent decades, telescopes like the Hubble and James Webb have completely transformed the way we view the universe. We can now see distant planets, stars, and asteroids in much clearer and more detail than ever before. In May 2025, the JWST observed a faint, moving spot in the sky, and this became the signal for the 2024 YR4 threat.
3. What is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
2024 YR4 is a space rock approximately 53 to 67 meters in length. It is approximately the size of a ten-story building. It was discovered in late 2024 and temporarily topped the list of large asteroids with the highest probability of hitting Earth.
4. Potential Threat to Earth:
According to initial calculations, the probability of this asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 was approximately 3.1%. This figure may seem small, but for planetary defense, it was unprecedented. Scientists immediately began simulations and preparations for a potential crisis.
5. Impact of a Moon Collision:
If this asteroid hits the Moon, there is no direct threat to Earth. According to astronomer Pawan Kumar, the impact will create a large crater on the Moon, and any debris that comes near Earth will burn up and be destroyed in our atmosphere.
6. Scientific Opportunity and Adventure:
This event is a golden opportunity for both scientists and amateur astronomers. The new crater formed by the collision can be seen with telescopes. As smaller fragments burn up in the atmosphere, a meteor shower is also possible. Additionally, this will give us the opportunity to study impact science in real time.
7. Planetary Defense Rehearsal:
The discovery and monitoring of 2024 YR4 provided NASA and other space agencies with practice in planetary defense preparations. This process—asteroid discovery, threat assessment, public notification, and long-term monitoring—provided training for the future.
8. NASA’s DART Mission:
In 2022, NASA launched the DART mission, intentionally colliding a spacecraft with an asteroid and altering its orbit. This demonstrated that the strategy of altering an asteroid’s path is not only theoretical but also practically feasible.
9. Further Monitoring and Study:
Asteroid 2024 YR4 will be visible again in 2028. JWST and other ground-based telescopes will then conduct detailed studies of its composition, size, and surface structure. This information will be crucial to understanding asteroid breakup and impact. It will also be observed closely during a close approach in the 2030s.
10. Caution and Significance:
Even though the likelihood of a direct threat to Earth is low, this event is extremely important to the scientific community. It is a natural experiment taking place near us, near Earth. Continuous monitoring by JWST and other observatories will help understand all aspects of this rare event.
